In the world of people, cars, planes, and factories, increases in consumption, speed, or carrying capacity cause hardware to expand, not shrink. ![]() But this core analogy glosses over profound differences, grounded in physics, between systems that produce energy and those that produce information. This “new energy economy” rests on the belief-a centerpiece of the Green New Deal and other similar proposals both here and in Europe-that the technologies of wind and solar power and battery storage are undergoing the kind of disruption experienced in computing and communications, dramatically lowering costs and increasing efficiency. Nonetheless, a bold new claim has gained popularity: that we’re on the cusp of a tech-driven energy revolution that not only can, but inevitably will, rapidly replace all hydrocarbons. So far, wind, solar, and batteries-the favored alternatives to hydrocarbons-provide about 2% of the world’s energy and 3% of America’s. That fear has since migrated to the belief that, because of climate change and other environmental concerns, society can no longer tolerate burning oil, natural gas, and coal-all of which have turned out to be abundant. ![]() It began with the fear that we were running out of oil. A movement has been growing for decades to replace hydrocarbons, which collectively supply 84% of the world’s energy.
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